A view from a stationary bicycle         Italian version

Point of View    Philosophy    Who am I?        Photos of Annecy      Photos of Prague

A social history of the 19th century through the local press       Links
 
Welcome to my site. On it you will find some observations on life in general, although not always in a serious way, and various thoughts on philosophical subjects (mainly in bite-size chunks). They are added to every week or so.
 
I should be happy to hear from you with your comments* but in any event I hope you enjoy your browsing.

*paul@paulbuckingham.com

 

 

for further essays, click here 

Some extracts from 'A Point of View' -

Manipulation

 

We all know that libel tourism is a major industry in England. Many oligarchs and petro-billionaires have sued or threatened to sue here using our draconian libel laws and the threat of our incredible lawyers costs in order to gag people who criticise them - even where the defendants live in other countries altogether. Major foreign corporations have done the same thing in order to stifle debate in the scientific world.

But this case was home grown. It started with an article in the Guardian. It was a response to the promotion of 'Chiropractic Awareness Week'. The writer, Simon Singh, a physicist turned journalist called into question the claim by the British Chiropractic Society (BCS') - that manipulation of the spine "can help treat children with colic, sleeping and feeding problems, frequent ear infections, asthma and prolonged crying". He said that there was not a jot of evidence to support the claim and continued: "This organisation is the respectable face of the chiropractic profession and yet it happily promotes bogus treatments.".  At this point the sky fell in. The BCS demanded a retraction. Simon Singh refused. The Guardian offered them a right of reply, but this was rejected by the BCS and they instead issued a writ for libel against Simon Singh personally. Mr Justice Eady decided that Simon Singh could not use the usual journalistic defence of fair comment on a matter of public interest because he had alleged 'verifiable facts' rather than stating an opinion. And, to everyone's surprise, he held that the phrase 'it happily promotes bogus treatments' meant that the BCS was being directly accused of dishonesty. To win, Simon Singh would have to prove not only that the treatments were bogus but that the BCS knew them to be bogus.

Now this is not the only instance of English libel proceedings being used in a way which stifles scientific comment worldwide. Peter Wilmshurst is not a rich man. He is an English consultant cardiologist at Shrewsbury hospital who had the temerity to call into question - at a medical conference in America - the conduct of trials of a heart implant device as certain of the researchers involved in them were paid consultants of and/or had financial interests in the Corporation which manufactures them. Although he could not realistically be sued in America, in view of the constitutional right to free speech, he is now being sued in England despite the tenuous link to this country - plaintiffs have only to show minimal publicity here and do not even have to show any actual financial loss here. And in this country, if you accuse someone of something unpleasant, like lying, then it is up to you to justify your accusation. In most other countries, including America, the person objecting to the accusation must prove it to be unfounded. And, of course, our system of exaggerated damages and costs makes the game of libel one which only the rich can play. For a normal person to get involved can be ruinously expensive - win or lose. Simon Singh has so far run up a bill of £200,000 in legal costs. How much the BCA has clocked up we do not know, and normally, the loser pays most of these. Simon Singh, fortunately, is a successful author and can just about afford the risk. Most cannot and so they are silenced.

The law is ripe for a change and the major political parties seem to be in favour of this, but nothing so far has happened. But now the Court of Appeal has brought us some hope. Simon Singh appealed and, most unusually, the Court of Appeal decided to field its top team - the Lord Chief Justice, the Master of the Rolls and Lord Justice Sedley. From time to time, the Court obviously decides that a matter is so important that change is needed. And change has come. In a judgement which alluded to Orwell's Ministry of Truth and Milton's report of the deadening effect of the Inquisition on scientific thought in the middle ages in Italy, they overturned everything which Mr Justice Eady had decided. They came to the conclusion that the Courts were an inappropriate forum for deciding scientific truth. They asked how a court could possibly decide on something which is a matter of debate in the scientific community. Even though they made no reference to the point that in science nothing can ever be verified, they decided that what Simon Singh had said was not verifiable fact, but opinion, and so he had available a defence of 'honest comment'. As for the Mr Justice Eady's finding that "happily promoting bogus treatments" meant that the BCS was necessarily being accused of lying, this they rejected completely - which Simon Singh had said all along was never what he meant.

But amongst the evidence put forward by the BCS was a trial of treatment of infantile colic by manipulation amongst 316 children. They said:
  This ... measured the number of hours each child spent in crying. It showed a reduction in crying time from 5.2 hours each day to 0.65 hours each day at 14 days. This was a very substantial improvement. There was no control group. However, the study constitutes evidence.

But does it? The Court of Appeal said
  To a literalist, any primary fact for example, that following chiropractic intervention a patient's condition improved may be evidence of a secondary fact, here that chiropractic works. To anyone (and not only a scientist) concerned with the establishment of dependable generalisations about cause and effect, such primary information is as worthless as evidence of the secondary fact as its converse would be.

Duchamp told us that his urinal was art when it was taken from its usual place on the toilet wall and hung instead on a gallery wall. It had gone beyond being simply a rather unimaginative design accompanying our everyday lives. But evidence should not be amenable to such self-serving treatment. Evidence, to be classified as evidence, should provide real support for a view and not just be consistent with it. Correlation does not equal cause. The word evidence should not be manipulated, whether by Humpty Dumpty or by Chiropracters, so that it means what they want it to mean.

 

P.S. The BCS has now decided not to appeal against the court's decision and has filed a notice of discontinuance.

To be or not to be - by chance

 Episode 1 - a marriage, death, linoleum and a rice pudding

  The marriage was due to take place that day. May, the bride was 25 years old, the youngest of a family of 8, and Bernard, the bridegroom, was 26 years old. She had been a sales assistant in a large department store, in the lingerie department and he had qualified as a printer after a long, seven year, apprenticeship. The wedding breakfast was to be a simple affair - some meat-paste sandwiches and a cup of tea. All had been prepared by May and her sisters. But then there came a message: the photographer wouldn't be able to come after all. He had been injured in the bombing of Cardiff the night before and was in hospital. It was September 1940. What to do? They had a Box Brownie and with this, in front of the Gospel Hall, the only photo of the bride and groom was taken. After the reception, simple because it was an era of rationing, the newly-marrieds, my parents, left Cardiff in order to begin their lives together in a recently built, not very solid, rented house in Filton, a town near to Bristol.

 

They arrived in Filton the evening of their marriage in order to start what was their rather less than glamorous honeymoon. My mother's brother, Uncle Abe, was a traveling salesman and had the outgoing character required for his role. He was great fun. I remember his lock-up at the bottom of the garden of his house in Cardiff where he kept his wares and, thanks to his connections, my parents had managed to buy some rather nice bedroom furniture at a very reasonable price. The floors of the new house though were bare and, fitted carpet not having been thought of and large bedroom carpets being too expensive, they opted for lino instead. They had it laid in each of the bedrooms and on the landing.

But all of these expenses meant that there was not much money left over for the couple of weeks after the marriage and before the next wage packet: my Mother still remembers that they were down to two tins of fruit for tea one night in the second week and not even enough money to buy the essential Bird's custard powder to go with it!

From the beginning of the second world war, my Father no longer worked as a printer, but as an engineer at the aircraft factory at Filton. And, conveniently, the house was immediately opposite the factory with an uninterrupted vista of his place of work. Given his apprenticeship and experience as a printer, and despite having volunteered for the navy at the outbreak of war, the government had classified him as an engineer and so in a 'reserved occupation'. The country needed people like him to make fighters and bombers. 

 

My father was normally part of the day-shift at the factory but, unusually, had the whole week off after the marriage. My mother recounts the tale that during the Wednesday morning of their honeymoon, my father had gone to the barber (of Filton). Towards midday, my mother was in the kitchen, making a rice pudding for the midday meal. The kitchen was at the front of the house and she was looking out of the window while she was preparing things. She was just about to put the rice pudding in the oven, when she saw a part of the factory erupt, just like a volcano, and a moment later there was the sound of an immense explosion. A minute or so later, my father arrived at the front door.  He stood there and said "I won't need my key then".   The door had been blown open and the roof blown off.  The kitchen window, my mother and the rice pudding were undamaged.  The bomb however, had made a direct hit on the air-raid shelter where the day-shift had gone for safety when the warning sounded. Ninety-one people were killed - including virtually all of my father's work-mates. It was only thanks to his honeymoon that my father survived.

My parents continued to live at the house for another two weeks. There was no real choice. It wasn't easy to find another house to rent and there was no real government help. The day after the bombing, it started to rain and carried on raining for several days. Their new bedroom furniture was hurriedly moved downstairs and despite the absence of a roof, the new linoleum on the first floor prevented the rain from penetrating further. My mother has been a keen advocate of linoleum ever since.

Finally, they found another house and we leave my parents as they watch while their furniture is unceremoniously loaded onto a horse and cart and strapped down to stop it falling off. We also see my mother's look of disgust at the indignity caused to her beautiful new furniture and the damage done to it by the straps - marks which can still be seen on her dressing table to this day.

 
 Episode 2 - Another house or two, another air-raid shelter or two and a tunnel..... to be continued.

A stroll through the emotions

 

Freud seemed to be saying that ultimately all our emotions came down to sex. He apparently thought that sex governed our whole psychology even before we became adolescents, Granted the lack of success that Freud's theories have had in curing people of their psychological ills, however, I think that we may assume that life is just a little more complicated, or straightforward, depending how you look at it.. There is therefore not only the matter of Oedipal relationships but, independently, a wish to survive and a wish to understand what is going on around us as well.  Our emotions, our feelings, are designed to motivate us to do a whole variety of things that we would not otherwise do, sex being only one of them.

Now it should not be surprising that scientific research into our emotions is continuing, if only because the accepted economic model - based on avarice - has broken down. It simply does not explain things well enough in order to produce a coherent description of how our economic system works. Our emotions have therefore become a major field for research, in an effort to win the next Nobel prize for economics, this time, though, allowing for the full complexity of human nature.

It seems that the accepted view of our emotions amongst the psychological fraternity these days, however, is that there are only six of them: joy, sadness, anger, fear, surprise and disgust. These are certainly obvious ones, each having its own facial expression and very separate set of feelings. Clearly they are an essential background for the writing of poems, plays and stories. They have an essential role in our lives: fear to avoid predators, anger to conquer foes and disgust to avoid diseases, for instance.

I am not quite sure why greed and selfishness are not there though, as they are clearly a fundamental part of our make-up. And then there is the feeling of boredom which pushes us to do things rather than sitting around. And of course love not only makes the world go around, but populates it. Although I find it difficult to see how, perhaps these others can all be described in terms of the fundamental six. Depression is another very strong feeling. It is though a strange emotion as it prevents us from doing things. Unhappiness can drive us to find happiness, but depression has what seems to be a wholly negative effect. It may of course be an emotion which is the equivalent of an arthritic knee. Although real, it is an aberration.

But there are now apparently some new contenders for the title of 'emotion' in the scientific world. President Obama has reminded us that we can feel uplifted, with tears in our eyes and an all-over glow. It is certainly capable of being felt by people throughout the world - we only have to look at the reaction around the world to his speech on the night when he was elected. What is it for, though? Well, according to the experimental psychologists, the chemical involved, oxytocin, doesn't make us give money to charity, but it does make us want to touch and hug and generally be more open and trusting of each other, which may well be a good thing for society. A feeling of elevation is relatively rare as an emotion, but if people are asked to remember their most cherished moments in life, then moments of elevation are likely to feature in the top 5. Perhaps that other great iconic moment of this millennium, the Susan Boyle performance, now seen by hundreds of millions of people around the world, was something which will have moved society forward towards global harmony?

What about pride? It is a paradox - a deadly sin, but at the same time necessary for our development as humans. I suspect that here there is a linguistic difficulty for us in Great Britain as the word pride is involved both in 'Pride' and 'taking pride in' or 'being proud of'. There is nothing after all which is wrong with taking pride in one's work or being proud of an achievement. Employers are likely to sack those who take no pride in their work. It is only the sort of pride which overvalues ourselves as individuals which is, in the religious sense, sinful and also works against our own best interests. It makes us view ourselves in an irrational light, which is never good.

And then there is apparently the emotion of interest itself. I would take this to be the other side of the coin to boredom, but clearly the two of them in tandem give us motivation to do things, to find things out, even in the absence of a tangible reward. It's what you can indulge more when you've retired.  I do though wonder whether the carrot of a reward for eventual success in our jobs would actually work at all in the absence of the continuous motivation provided by our emotional attachment to doing things and finding things out. Of course, this then calls into question the monetary reward needed to motivate people when they are doing jobs which are not purely routine - bankers come to mind. Should it in fact be less than for those on the assembly line? Why do we pay more to intelligent people who can do more complex, but at the same time more intrinsically rewarding work? Would they not do the work anyway? But would I have been willing to charge my clients less for my advice? That's the problem with avarice. It doesn't just apply to bankers.

The Wisdom of Crowds
 
Wikipedia is based on the idea of collective intelligence - that to be able to absorb knowledge from different people, in different areas of competence, is an enormous resource which can produce a vast and reliable data-base. The result is the famous on-line encyclopaedia. But all is not well with the world of the crowd. Wikipedia has introduced rules and procedures designed to prevent the crowd from changing articles maliciously. At the beginning, the crowd consisted of people with an interest in creating a resource for the general good, even if these people consisted mainly of geeks and were not really the 'crowd' in the widest sense.  But now, in view of the fact that the geeks are not very happy with the restrictions placed upon them, many are effectively on strike and there are not many othernon-geeks to take their place. And so it may be that the great encyclopedia will wither because of the lack of interest of the crowd.

In England we have seen the phenomenon of 'Jedward'. Each week on X Factor, the twins were kept on the programme thanks to a public which didn't really care whether they could sing or dance. Their quiffs and the fact that they were twins were sufficient, until last week when the crowd decided finally to kick them out. But into a rich future or into anonymity? The crowd will decide.

Jordan, having reappeared on "I'm a celebrity get me out of here", found that the crowd wanted to make her suffer for having been nasty to Peter André in "Katie and Peter", Katie and Peter - the next chapter", "Katie and Peter - the baby diaries", Katie and Peter Stateside" etc., etc. After the public vote which nominated Jordan for the seventh consecutive time as the person to undergo the 'bush-tucker trials', she decided to get out.
In the meantime, the public have conferred sainthood on Peter - he was voted Father of the Year. As a result, he will have the right of entry (notwithstanding that his quiff gives him a remarkable resemblance to Jedward) into that part of heaven reserved for celebrities, the part sponsored by Heat Magazine.
Last week, in a country far-away called Switzerland, there was another demonstration of the power of the crowd. This time regarding minarets. After a campaign by the extreme right against the right to have minarets on Mosques, in a referendum 57 % of the voters were in favour of the prohibition.

The (Moslem) Turkish President hardly helped when he said, earlier in the year, that minarets were the bayonets of Islam and, of course, the posters used by the Popular Party of Switzerland showed the minarets sprouting from a Swiss flag together with a Muslim woman dressed in a black Bhurka. For them, the construction of the minarets would be an attack on the traditional character of the country: not only in the physical sense, but also in terms of their moral values. They represent misogyny, the bringing in of (medieval) Sharia law and the apparent desire of Muslims to take over the world.
 
Now it is obvious that the posters were designed to create the maximum hatred against Muslims, but it is nonetheless useful to look beneath the surface. At the moment, there are only 4 minarets in Switzerland, whilst there are hundreds of mosques and prayer rooms.  And from no minaret in Switzerland is it possible to call the faithful to prayer.  It is contrary to their noise abatement law.  It is Switzerland after all.  

According to an Imam in Oxford, the original purposeof minarets was simply the practical one of being a way of calling the faithful to prayer in the days when there was no means of amplification for the human voice. Thus minarets were built for practical purposes and were not a part of the religion as such. It can be seen, therefore that the only point of more minarets would be to make Islam more prominent in Switzerland.  So why now?
The request to add these minarets to so many mosques apparently started after the construction of a big Sikh temple in Bern, finished in 2006. One could therefore be forgiven for suspecting this to be religious one-upmanship. There is not much love lost between the Muslims and the Sikhs, especially in India.

I cannot say how one ought to interpret what the Turkish president said. Was it the Muslim equivalent of (Isaiah 2:4): "They shall beat their swords into ploughshares and their spears into pruning hooks", i.e. "They shall beat their bayonets into minarets" as a symbol of peace? Or was it perhaps intended to mean that the minarets are become a means of conquering the world from within, neutral countries included?

Obviously the proponents of the referendum chose the second interpretation. And they may well be right: the Turkish President also described mosques as "the military barracks" of the Muslim religion. Which doesn't sound very peaceful.

It seems to me that this episode is to the discredit of both the Muslims involved and the Swiss people who voted for the proposition but, even more, it tells us that a system in which the crowd decides directly on laws is by no means ideal. In my opinion the more serious decisions need deeper and more informed consideration. 

We ought perhaps to keep the wisdom of the crowd for the Jedwards and Jordans of this world.

Because they're worth it.

 

How do you solve a problem like Nick Griffin?

(With apologies to the Sound of Music)

 

We've had a big debate regarding whether or not it was justifiable to allow Nick Griffin, the leader of the BNP, to participate last week on 'Question Time' on BBC1. At the time I was in Normandy and I saw no reference to it in the French newspapers. They had their own debate of the moment - the proposition that the 22 year old son of President ('Emperor') Sarkozy should become the chairman of a public organization which deals with the redevelopment of the main commercial area of Paris, 'La Defense' - a very prestigious area. He has no relevant qualification for the appointment - in fact he is a university student and just retaking the second year of his law degree. Finally, last week, after all the clamour against such obvious nepotism, the son decided not to put himself forward for the position. The presence of a fascist or a Trotskyist on French TV, however, isn't considered to be anything special. Whether from the extremes of the left or the right, it is normal to hear a wide range of opinion. But not so in England.

Even though we can hear and read everything on the internet and in the papers, it seems that we ought not to hear such opinions on publicly funded television. Not because it is likely that Nick Griffin will say something that is against the race relations legislation, but because he has an opinion which is not acceptable to many people. And because the fact that he would be sen on the tele could mean that some people would be convinced by his argument of England for the whites. It seems that we are children who have to be protected from a malign influence rather than adults who live in a democracy - adults with a right to listen to everyone's opinions, even if they are not politically correct or are plain irrational.

I saw the broadcast and, obviously, the members of the audience (who had written their own questions) did not share his opinions.  It was also obvious that, when he was not surrounded by sympathisers, Nick Griffin was lost.  He was not capable of presenting arguments to persuade normal people of his (irrational) opinions.  His policy of presenting himself as the non-racist face of fascism failed.  To do so and at the same time to defend the leader of the Klu Klux Klan as someone who is not very violent at all, was not a brilliant idea.  In reply to the accusation that he had denied the holocaust, neither was it very clever to say in his defense that he had never been convicted of it - particularly when it is not even a crime in this country.  But he is not a very intelligent man.  I do not think that we shall have a prime minister called Nick Griffin in the foreseeable future.

But Peter Hain and the other extremist protestors are also in an irrational position. What the antifascists think is, as far as they are concerned, true and so it is not possible that the fascists have a point of view which is in any sense justifiable - thus, they do not have the right to express themselves. The anti-fascists have for many years tried to silence the BNP and its friends rather than argue with them. From time to time we see this attitude to aspects of social behavior arrive and then depart rather like the tide. The difficulty of talking openly about immigration started in the 50's and has continued until almost now. It was connected to the fact that a large proportion of the immigrants were people of 'colour' and we managed to mix racism (an important ethical question) with the practical problem: how and to what extent can we house and integrate into our society all the people who want to come here? The refusal to see these two things as different has put us in a position where it is almost only the fascists who have been willing to talk about it. The liberals, mainly of the middle classes, have demonstrated, but only to show their disapproval of the fascists and not to propose solutions to the practical problems suffered, for the most part, by the working classes.

It is dangerous to have forbidden subjects - ones of which we cannot speak in polite society. Not only is it contrary to the essence of free speech, but it risks the creation of a boil which will eventually have to be lanced and the contents cleaned up. It is better to avoid its formation in the first place. We can be proud of our law regarding incitement to racial hatred. It is a good compromise between the ability to express ourselves and the right to make someone's life miserable or even dangerous. Now, however, seeing that I am Welsh and thus more indigenous to these isles than Nick Griffin, I must consider whether the descendants of the Anglo-Saxons, the Vikings and the French should leave these shores in order to liberate this country for me and my fellow countrymen and also of course for our sheep - black and white. We Welsh can never be accused of racism.

 

Harry Potter and the magic prayer 

Just after we got back from a skiing break in Annecy, a religious friend, presumably in an attempt to win me back to the faith, told me that her equally religious daughter had gone out for a long weekend with friends to the ski slopes in France, only to find that they were shrouded in cloud. After two days of this, time was running out and the daughter said to her friends: "What do think we should do?". To which the reply was: "What can we do?". The daughter said: "Well we could pray for the weather to clear up". She did and it did - for the remaining hours of their stay! The daughter used to be the leader of a sales team for a large company and somehow I can just hear her telling God that he had failed to meet his target for sunshine upon the righteous.

Now of course the previous week, when we had gone up Mount Semnoz to ski, we too had found that our heads were in a cloud. We could barely see where we were and the weather forecasts were not looking good. As you may guess, I did not pray for better weather and neither so far as I know did Heather. Somehow, though, for the next three days that was precisely what we had - bright sunshine and beautiful snow.

If I were still religious and had prayed, then I might have believed such glorious weather to be an answer to prayer. Or perhaps not, because my experience of prayer for good weather for church outings when I was young was that the result was about as reliable as the long-term weather forecast, despite the amount of faith displayed by our leaders. In fact, in my church, we gave up on the concept altogether. I'm not sure that we had in mind the chaos theory idea that the beating of a butterfly's wings here might cause a hurricane on the other side of the world, but we came to the conclusion that it was selfish to ask for any particular sort of weather for ourselves, when it might be exactly the opposite of what someone-else needed. We decided that must be why God ignored our requests for sunshine. And so we took our macks instead.

There are, however, large sections of the evangelical wing of the Church in America, particularly, which believe not just in God the weatherman, but in God the Capitalist - a God who has promised believers all sorts of good things, both spiritual and material. All they need to do is, in the jargon, "claim the promises of God". It is the Harry Potter version of Christianity - one where all you have to do is say the right incantation, waive your wand and behold, you get what you want, be it money or health! In the febrile atmosphere of such churches, any apparent example of the working of such promises is acclaimed as confirmation of God's faithfulness to his people. They tithe their money to their churches knowing that if they have faith in their God in his new role as investment manager, then he will give them what they ask for - the bread they cast upon the waters will be returned to them - which is one of those promises. If they are not successful, then it is down to their lack of faith. And the Churches have malls instead of bookshops.

Amongst the superstitious generally, the events in their lives which accord with their superstition are made a lot of - the others are largely ignored. They are put down to a failure to use the correct make of frogs leg or eye of newt when carrying out the incantation. The Boxer Uprising in China of 1900 against modernism and Christianity was a good example of this way of thinking, as 'In Our Time' reminded us the other week. The Chinese peasants belonging to this martial-arts based religion believed that through training, martial arts, diet and prayer, they could perform extraordinary feats, such as flight, and would be immune to swords and bullets. They went into battle against the government troops believing that they were invincible. When they were shot and killed, defects in their religious ceremonies prior to the battle, or the presence of "unclean" women during those ceremonies, would be blamed for their vulnerability.

But it is not just the churches or the superstitious. The American investment fund boss, Bernard Madoff, relied on a similar mentality - the wish to believe. He became the incarnation of God the Investment Manager, conferring upon his carefully chosen people a return on their investment at a rate which was seemingly impossible. And of course it was. He used the money of new investors to pay the promised returns to the established investors - not forgetting to take a substantial cut for himself along the way. He helped his marks to convince themselves that, just like the Boxers and the Harry Potter wing of the church, they were immune to reality. People persist in failing to understand that if something looks too good to be true then it almost certainly is.

Of course, because his fraud could clearly be proved, Mr Madoff will end his days in gaol. Not so, however, the many other purveyors of false hope who wriggle and twist and tell us that all we had to do to avoid disaster was put another wing of bat in the cauldron. 

 

A flight of fantasy or There are never enough hours in the day

It was just the other day that the death was reported of one of the last four of the veterans of the first world war hitherto surviving. He was 108. His three remaining comrades in arms are aged between 107 and 112. And these are men, and men do not usually live for as long as women. In fact currently, there are 7 times as many female centenarians in Britain as men. Now attaining the age of 100 does not rival Methuselah, but it is nonetheless far beyond the Psalmist's three score years and ten.

And becoming a centenarian is on the increase. In 2007, there were 9,300 centenarians in the UK as compared to about 100 in 1900. Bearing in mind that those now aged 100 or more were born around 1900, then it is clear that, with all the medical advances we have seen since then, we can look forward to vastly increasing numbers. In the last 40 years, the number of centenarians has increased tenfold and so it seems reasonable to assume that in 40 years time that figure will reach at least 90,000.

For years, ever since as a young lawyer I consulted my first copy of the actuarial tables, I have been telling people that the longer they live, the greater the age they can expect ultimately to live to. This takes a while to sink in, but I generally find that their eyes un-glaze when I point out that three score and ten, or perhaps three score and fifteen now, is the average innings for all just-born babies. It takes into account the risks we will encounter during our lives from illness or dangerous sports like, well like any kind of sport really. But if, having got to, say, 50, we've managed to avoid them, and being alive is a good indicator of that, then that increases the likelihood of our living to a reasonably ripe old age.

Of course the actual life expectancy at birth varies from person to person, not only because of the amount of danger we expose ourselves to, but it is also influenced by where you are born and who you are born to. This is clearly unfair. I therefore intend to write to Brussels to suggest a new European Directive. It would provide for the Standard European Life Expectancy and would fix it at 75 years.

Does a fixed life span mean that I am in favour of euthanasia for everyone once they have reached the end of their Euro life-span? Well, it could be an answer in a world with an ever-increasing population, but no. Quite obviously though, if in reality we have the actual life-span which nature has bestowed upon us, but are deemed to have a lifetime lasting only 75 years, then something has to change. That something would be the length of the year. We would each therefore have a personalised variable length year. The older we got, the longer our variable year - to be called the Euroyear" - would have to be in order to accommodate our increased life expectancy.

Now this is not a wind up. Alright, it is a wind up, but think of the benefits it could give us. At the age of 50, my life expectancy was actually 84 years. That means that, on average, each of my Euroyears was 84/75ths of a calendar year or 409 days. At my present age, the age at which the tables anticipate that I will fall off my twig has increased to 87 years. My Euroyear" would therefore have increased by 14 days so that now it is 423 days long. Allowing as well for the previous years when my Euroyear" was underestimated because I hadn't then lived long enough to demonstrate my longevity and you have an almost exponential increase in length for my Euroyear".

Now, apart from the creation of Eurojobs, where's the benefit? Well, as they get older, everyone complains that time rushes by faster and faster. With my proposal this would all stop. Instead, as we got older the years would get longer rather than shorter. As an alternative, you could have the choice of this extra time being reflected in a longer week - currently my Euroweek would stand at 8 earth days, a possible disadvantage if I still worked, but no problem now that I am retired. Or at last we could have that thing which everybody wants - more hours in the day: an extra 4 for me to be exact.

It's amazing what a lawyer's training can do for you.

 

Apathy and disillusionment

It is Sunday 21 June 2009.  According to the TV this morning, there was a demonstration in the streets of Teheran yesterday.  This, notwithstanding the command by the supreme head of Iran to the contrary and the menaces implicit in his speech of a violent reaction against those who decided to continue to protest.  


The theme of the protestors is summed up on a card carried on the foreheads of many of the them: it says "Where is my vote?".  Up until now, there has been no reply, apart from the fury and arrogance of those in power. 
Press TV, the official English voice of the Iranian government makes little mention of the extent of the protest.  Its Election Blog stops with the announcement of the victory of Mr Ahmadinejad.

George Galloway, the British MP and leader of the Respect Party, presents a programme on Press TV and has a column in the Daily Record, a Scottish newspaper.  He has written in his column - "We have to accept Ahmadinejad's re-election, not least because all our best friends in that region don't have any elections at all."  Even if this were true - and we can cite Israel to the contrary - would this be justification for electoral fraud?  But this is the pompous man who said to Saddam Hussein - "Sir, I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability.".  (To see this stomach-churming moment click
here.)  And in the meantime we see that there are ordinary people with the courage to put their lives at risk to demand real democracy.  Of course, just like President Mugabe, the government of Iran blames its problems on that great foreign power, England - England which, it seems, is the most evil of all the western powers.

In the real England, we see a situation where the MPs, whom we have elected under a fair system, are not very popular.  But it is not just because they have made such a mess of their expenses.  Yes, this hasn't helped the situation at all, but lack of trust in politicians has been, just like the flu, endemic in our society for many years, for many decades even.  Why?  Because even if the system permits us to vote for the candidate we choose, we end up each time with a government which will do anything it can in order to remain in power. It gradually becomes less and less responsive to us and to what we see as necessary. 

We have the word "Spin" to describe the manipulation of information necessary to try to persuade us that things are not really as we believed them to be.  Because of their failure to be straight with us, we no longer listen to them.  We know that it will not be the truth - or at least it will not be the whole truth and nothing but the truth.  And so we are no longer interested in voting.  Our apathy robs us of our vote.

Having borrowed immense amounts of money in order to support our banking system, Gordon cannot now accept that it will be necessary to reduce to some extent our outgoings (his so-called "Investment") in the future.  He cannot bring himself to use the word "Cuts", even if it is obvious to us all that it will be necessary.  He is petrified in a position where he cannot admit the truth, because spin has become a part of this character.  Unfortunately, he is not unique in the characteristic.  I admit that not all politicians are alike, but it is a very widespread tendency and so we cannot be sure that any politician will tell us the truth.  In our view, they are all tarred with the same brush.  Which is sad.

What to do?  Personally, I would prefer a system where there was separation of power as between the government and the legislature, but we won't see that in the foreseeable future.  In its absence, therefore, I would have primaries to select the candidates and so not just end up with the candidates selected by the party apparatchiks.  There ought to be a right of recall of any MP, as in California, where he or she does something unacceptable.  And then thirdly, I am not convinced that it ought to be possible to make a long-term career out of being an MP.  American presidents are only allowed two terms of office.  To be well paid, but only be able to sit for say three parliaments would, with the other proposals, probably create MP's less under the control of the party system.  Accepting that political parties are necessary, the balance between the control exerted by the party and the independence of opinion necessary in a representative democracy should shift towards independence.  

I hope never to need to go onto the streets in order to demand real democracy in our country, but we see at the moment a dangerous growth in support, not for the mullahs, but for fanatics of the fascist persuasion.  In order to avoid a continuing decline in the faith we have in our system of democracy, and the consequent encouragement of extremism, we must take seriously the need for a real change in our political world.

 

Life as a story

The star of reality TV and OK magazine, Jade Goody, died on mother's day 2009 in a blaze of publicity, both here and abroad - Le Monde for instance described her as the Princess Di of the poor. She became known because of her appearance on Big Brother. But then on Celebrity Big Brother, she made some very impolite remarks about Shilpa Shetty, a star of Bollywood. Jade was expelled from the house and became a hate figure for British society. She became despised not only for her racism but also for her loud mouth, general ignorance - she thought East Anglia was abroad somewhere - and lack of education: the very 'qualities' which had made her famous in the first place.

There then followed a period when, with the help of the publicist Max Clifford, she gradually rehabilitated herself in the minds of the celebrity-magazine buying public. This was not hindered by the fact that Max Clifford represented Shilpa Shetty as well. Public forgiveness was stage-managed to everyone's mutual profit and, indeed, Jade was appearing on the Indian version of Big Brother to show just how un-racist she was when the terrible news was given to her of something which was all too real.

And so the public accepted her back into its arms on a wave of emotion. She had lived in the full glare of publicity and now was to die in the same way. The controversy over her making a few millions of pounds from this last phase of her life merely ensured that she made even more money, as did Max Clifford. But most people were perfectly happy for her to make as much money as she could in order to support her two sons after her death. As she said, she wanted to make sure they had the best education they could get :an education which she had not had - the factor which had both given her wealth and nearly taken that wealth away. And she married in church and made sure they would all meet in the hereafter by having herself and her children christened and so accepted into the Christian faith.

Now we have been here before. Princess Di comes to mind - someone generally regarded as an attractive, if not very bright, woman who was wronged by the Prince whom she married in a fairy-tale wedding and who was then 'murdered' when about to find happiness in the arms of another, according to her pantomime villain of a prospective father-in-law.

Now, the two stories are certainly not the same, but they are both stories made up of elements that could be found in any melodrama. There is romance, pathos, infidelity, religion, a mother's love, redemption, forgiveness and tragic death. And it was all presented by their publicists and the media, those professional story tellers, in a way which tugged at our heart strings to the maximum extent. The regret and the soul-searching of the Montagues and Capulets when they discover the deaths of Romeo and Juliet are reflected in the public's reaction to the deaths of these two modern heroines.

But both of these people are actually yesterday's news. The band-waggon has moved on. The story has changed to star a socially awkward, unemployed, rather unattractive, 47 year old Scottish woman, who has "never been kissed".  But she is a woman who had the courage to stand up in front of an initially hostile and highly sceptical audience and judges on "Britain's got talent" and sing so well that she brought the house down. Since then there have been 75 million* hits on her performance on YouTube and press coverage throughout the world.  Demi Moore brought her to the attention of the American public through her Twitter site, saying that she was in tears after watching the performance.  Again, a melodrama with a plot as implausible as you can imagine - a triumph of talent and innocence over the superficiality of looks.

Since the show was broadcast, we have found that she has learning difficulties, was bullied at school, visits old folk on behalf of her church, was her elderly mother's carer until she died two years ago, that for many years she had singing lessons and took part in talent shows with her mother's encouragement.  And now, finally, she has triumphed against all the odds.  Could it get any better?  Perhaps she will finally be kissed.  But will she be able to build on her success or will she ultimately be broken by it like many of her predecessors?  We cannot know, but we shall watch as the story continues to unfold - at least until the next character comes on the scene and displaces her in our living soap opera.


* as at 24 April 2009

 

The cucumbers on the roof

Our mothers came to lunch on Sunday: they cover most of the last century from Zeppelins to e-mails. My mother was telling us the story of how one day during the last war she heard my grandmother shouting for help from the garden. There was an air-raid shelter dug into the ground, on the roof of which a thick layer of earth was piled up as additional protection.  In the spirit of 'Dig for Victory', my grandmother had planted cucumbers on the roof and had gone out to dig the patch over.  She had dug her spade in only to find that she had made contact with the casing of an incendiary bomb, which must have fallen harmlessly in the previous night's air-raid.

Fortunately it did not go off in response to my grandmother's direct hit either. The bomb disposal squad was called by my mother in her official, albeit somewhat unlikely, capacity as the air-raid warden for the street and they made it safe. It's the sort of event in life that stays with you.

Later that day, I was standing by the sink of one of the houses we let to students, washing from my hands the dust from an old wardrobe which I had been breaking up. We needed to replace it and there was no way we could get it down the rather narrow staircase in one piece. It had come with the house, which had been sold to us some years previously by an elderly lady who had lived there for a very long time. And so I suppose the dust I was washing away represented, in some sense, the history of that house.

When we meet someone new, of course, they have no idea what our history is. The people who have featured in our lives over the years know the part of our history which they have shared with us and whatever-else we choose to tell them, but friendships come and go and, during even the longest friendships, there are things which will have happened of which the friend will not be aware.

And so there is no-one who really knows everything which has happened to me and how I reacted to all those events: not even me. I, who lived through it all, cannot remember everything which has happened to me. My memory of my own life is necessarily very selective.

But there is a sense in which everyone knows my history, because the events in my life and how I dealt with them, together with that accident of history, my genome, have made me the person I am today. And so someone who has only known me for a short time sees me for what I am now, rather than seeing what I am now, but through the distorting lens of what I was in the past.

For there is no doubt that it takes some time for us to adjust to the changing personality of our friends. But it takes even more time to adjust to our own changing personalities. My initial reaction, for example, is still to think of myself as the tongue-tied adolescent I was with, now, just an artificial veneer of self-confidence. Of course, the reality is that I have long since ceased to be timid and am now probably at my happiest when having a good conversation.

Which all goes to underline the need to move on from the past. The question is much more what I am going to do today and tomorrow. The past has its share of stories which are worth telling, but the present is where we live. And so we should take a look at ourselves every so often and reflect on who we are now and what our strengths and weaknesses are, so that our past does not impede our future. We should wash away the dust.

 

Abu Qatada and human rights

This is an essay where I do not know, as I begin to write, what my conclusion will be. But, to start with, let's be honest: Abu Qatada is not someone I would invite into my home. He is an extremist Moslem cleric who has said some hideous things. If anyone converts from being a muslim to some other religion then he is in favour of that person's murder, and also that of the rest of his family. He has advocated the killing of Jews and attacks on Americans. His disciples have included some very nasty muslim extremists.

Mr Justice Colins, of SIAC, the court dealing with these things, having seen all the evidence against him, open and secret, said of him that he was "a truly dangerous individual". He came here on a false passport in 1993 and, ironically, was granted asylum on the ground that he would be subject to religious persecution if returned to his home country of Jordan. Irony is clearly written over everything in this case: he is using Human Rights legislation to resist being returned to Jordan despite his hatred of everything for which Human Rights stand.

And yet, he has now been awarded compensation by the European Court of Human Rights* ('ECHR') of £2,500 (although not the £170,000 claimed) because he was detained for a while under laws which allowed indefinite detention of foreigners who appeared to be a grave threat to national security.  The basis of the finding was not that he was not a threat to national security but that his detention was discriminatory, as the House of Lords had already found.  This was because the law only applied to foreigners and not to UK nationals as well.  The law was therefore changed, and now, in a modified form ('Control Orders' - a form of house arrest), it applies to everyone equally.  Which is nice.

At almost the same time, the House of Lords has decided** that this man can be returned to his country of origin, Jordan, where he has already been convicted in absentia of terrorism. He will be tried again, but it is said that some of the evidence on which the original conviction was founded was obtained by torture of the witnesses.  And that evidence will be used again. This is what the controversy has been about.

Torture is absolutely prohibited by all human rights conventions. But the House of Lords has decided that the question of using evidence allegedly obtained by torture is not the deciding factor.  The question is whether there is "a real risk that Qatada's trial in Jordan would be flagrantly unfair in character, course or consequences".  In the light of the memorandum of understanding signed between the UK and the Jordanian governments as to how Qatada would be dealt with upon his return, they held there was no real likelihood of such risk.

The Lords said that the Human Rights convention, as previously interpreted by the ECHR itself, did not require a trial process of the standard which would be required for someone in the countries which had signed the convention - only that it should not be flagrantly unfair.  The use of evidence allegedly obtained by torture (and there is after all no actual proof of that it was so obtained) was only therefore one consideration amongst many.  So then, we can send someone back to his country of origin where he would face a trial process which we in Europe would regard as unacceptable, but which nonetheless is not likely to be 'flagrantly unfair'.  Which does seem to be just a little discriminatory.

One of the problem with human rights is that we know the sort of gross breaches of human rights which we think should never be allowed. We can put names to them - Hitler, Pol Pot etc. But when we try to write down what we mean in a convention we inevitably fail to allow for the unknowable complexities of human life in a very different future.  This is part of the reason why we now have so much difficulty in finding a way to deal with someone who is flagrantly evil and is a danger to national security.

The other difficulty is that the simple solution of trying him here for any crimes he has committed here has been ruled out.  Why?  Because in the opinion of MI5 and the government the trial process would apparently reveal too much about the technology used to obtain the information required to produce a conviction.  Although it seems that this disclosure it is not a problem for other countries in Europe.

Quite clearly, the House of Lords has tried to find a way to deport someone that no-one wants here, without at the same time offending the principles of the Human Rights Act.  Personally, I am not convinced that they have or that the ECHR will think that they have succeeded.  What is really needed, though is a change in policy to allow evidence of crimes committed here to be prosecuted here, despite the misgivings of MI5.  It would cause far less damage to the fabric of our human rights than that which we have seen arise from their attempts to detain without the need to prosecute for actual crimes.  And human rights are important to us as well as to Mr Qatada.

*Click here for link to summary of ECHR judgement

**Click here for House of Lords Judgement


Charles Darwin and purpose

This year we celebrate Darwin's bicentenary. He was born on 12 February 1809. The widespread media coverage has given us a greater insight into the man and his theories. As we know, at the centre of his revolutionary theory of evolution is his concept of the survival of the fittest. Organisms which are slightly different to others of their kind will have a different probability of survival - whether better or worse. Those which have the better chance of surviving, by being better adapted to their surroundings or being better able to compete with other organisms, will be more likely to live long enough to reproduce. It's as simple as that.

That such a simple concept was so revolutionary is surprising to us now. Darwin though amassed a tremendous amount of evidence during his years of voyage on the Beagle and then for many years after that. It showed the vast number of subtle variations which existed within the same species and which spread in a continuum across to other species. Up until then, it had been accepted that there was little variation within species and that there were clear differences between the species. This was despite the obvious evidence from plant and dog breeding which showed that major changes in a species could be brought about quite easily and quickly.

But there was something else. The pre-Darwinian world was supposed to have meaning, to have purpose. Darwin's world had no need of purpose. By definition, evolution was not aiming at any particular goal: it just happened. This seemed to most people to be completely unnatural. And recent experiments on young children reveal the idea of a purposeful world to be their normal state of mind. According to the researchers, children as young as three attribute purpose to things. When 7 and 8-year-old children were asked questions about inanimate objects and animals, it was found that most believed they were created for a specific purpose. Pointy rocks were there for animals to scratch themselves on. Birds existed "to make nice music", while rivers exist so boats have something to float on. "It was extraordinary to hear children saying that things like mountains and clouds were 'for' a purpose and appearing highly resistant to any counter-suggestion," said the researchers.*

Of course whether this 'normal' state of mind is innate or comes from upbringing is unknown. But a purposive way of looking at things is natural for adults as well. It is though more a wish to see purpose in what befalls us in life, rather than accepting that our lives are simply the subject of chance events. This wish to see purpose in seemingly random events is exemplified by the astonishing pronouncement of a recently promoted catholic bishop that the devastation and deaths caused by Hurricane Katrina were the result of the sexual immorality of the people in Louisiana. I wonder what he will make of the bush fire disaster in Southern Australia this week.

But his pronouncement also illustrates the quite logical consequence that such a belief in purpose means that we are more likely to believe that we have a reasonable prospect of controlling our 'destiny' by non-rational means. We can try to become the more moral people the Archbishop would have us be, we can pray or we can perhaps head the warnings of our horoscopes.

And it seems that in hard times, when human beings feel that they are losing the normal sort of control they have over their lives, they do indeed rely more on superstition, spiritual searching and conspiracy theories. Studies show that people in risky professions - deep-sea fishermen for example - perform a greater number of superstitious rituals than those with desk jobs. Those living in high-risk areas of the Middle East are far more likely to carry a lucky charm or avoid walking under ladders than others. A 2007 study* showed a 50% increase in the growth rate of evangelical churches in the US with the downturn of each economic cycle. Uncertainty about our lives, whether at work or at home, tends to makes us unhappy and so it is not surprising that we look for ways, whether real or imaginary, to take back control. Although whether this genuinely gives us all happiness or just makes a large umber of us more neurotic is, in my view, open to debate.

So then, whilst Darwin showed us a new way of looking at life and death, many people have a real problem facing up to the consequences. For them there seem to be two options. The first is a refusal, mainly by the very religious, to accept the validity of the overwhelming evidence in its favour. For the others there is the possibility of accepting the theory without ever thinking about its consequences, something which experience tells me is quite widespread. Perhaps in another two hundred years time, we shall as a species, have evolved the ability to live with reality? Maybe. Perhaps by then pigs might also have evolved the ability to fly.

* see New Scientist , 7th February 2009 - "Natural born believers"


The inertia of belief

I remember when I was about 12 years old riding my scooter along the garden path and trying to work out what to 'believe in God' really meant. According to the books I had read, the words had connotations of to 'trust in, cling to and rely on' God's Son. And, of course, if you did believe then eternal life would be yours. But for all these extra words, the basic point was that there had to be absolute acceptance. To doubt was to sin. And it was that which I found difficult. How is acceptance of something in any sense possible unless there is some convincing evidence that it is true? And no proof is offered; merely assertion.

Now if I want to climb Everest, I know that my best bet is to find myself an experienced Sherpa, one who has done the climb many times before and so who can guide me in (relative) safety to the top. In that sense I shall believe in him, I shall rely upon him, although not absolutely - I know that we may still get into difficulty.

This illustrates the problem that the various religions have. They each profess, alone, to be able to guide us (by very different paths) safely to the top of their Everest - to eternal life. The difficulty is that none of these guides or their illustrious predecessors over the millennia have ever been there themselves and come back, or can produce any evidence that the people they have guided have actually found the safety of eternity.

Belief, however, is not confined to religion. We have political beliefs - I can for instance believe in peace. But in reality all that means is that I want peace - and if necessary I suppose that I have to be prepared to fight for it! One may be motivated by a belief in Socialism. I, however, do not have to believe in Socialism in order to know that, like most people, I have a strong emotional reaction against unfairness (especially towards me) and feel empathy for those in a worse position than me. These are enough to motivate me to do something, without the need for any underlying system of beliefs.

Communism, that extreme form of socialism, asserted that all would be well if we were all equal. Not that it ever lived up to its own agenda, but since the 80's it has suffered a rapid decline and is now unrecognizable as any form of Marxism even in China. Economic reality has ultimately defeated a long-held set of beliefs. Mind you, pure market-based capitalism as a belief system is hardly credible in the light of present circumstances either.

This is the main problem with beliefs: if I say that I believe something to be true, then I have an emotional need to try to justify it, whether I have doubts or not. That is a large part of the reason why communism lasted for so long even when it was quite obvious that it had failed. By having beliefs, I paint myself into a corner. Politics ought surely to be based on pragmatism - what works - rather than the rhetoric of belief.

And then we have quasi-religious beliefs such as astrology or those underlying 'complimentary medicine'. Now it has been shown by that cynical group of people we call scientists, that most types of complementary medicine are of no more use than flower power was in the 60's or girl power was in the hands of the Spice Girls. So we have a contradiction. We live in a time when there is a call for proper evidence-based medicine in the NHS, rather than relying without question on what doctors have always believed works.  At the same time, however, many people choose to accept a rag-bag of mystical ideas which are, by and large, based on mutually contradictory versions of how the body functions, but all under the overall banner of complementary medicine.  Of necessity this results in equally contradictory ways of curing the body's ills, although this contradiction is never pointed out by its practitioners.

Obviously complementary medicine does not extend to serious illness, because there is a tacit understanding that these things shouldn't be relied on for anything life-threatening - hence the substitution of the phrase "Complementary Medicine" for the original description "Alternative Medicine". For minor or chronic ailments, however, people will spend money on them. They feel justified in doing so because it is their belief that "it works for them", rather than accepting that people do sometimes just get better or feel better because the body has managed to repair itself or because their mood has changed.  The placebo effect is a wonderful thing.

Maybe such beliefs remain popular despite contrary evidence because they are largely protected from argument.  For many people there seems to be an unwritten rule that all beliefs are 'personal' and so not susceptible of debate, especially when they are based on wishful thinking regarding illness and death.  To accept that they are wrong is not an option.  For them, there is no requirement that a belief should have been arrived at rationally - and so, by the same token it cannot be challenged by reason.  The consequence is to encourage lazy thinking.

For these reasons, therefore, I think that it would be useful to abolish the word belief altogether. I cannot see what the word adds to any debate, except for a false degree of certainty - after all, logic tells us that there is nothing that we can believe in, in the strong sense of being absolutely certain of it, unless we are insane or fools or have been convinced of it by a charismatic speaker.

I personally do not feel the need to believe, for instance, that the sun will rise tomorrow.  I simply live my life on the assumption that it will do so, based on the available evidence.  I shall continue to do so until I see a reason not to - albeit perhaps for only a brief period! I don't even 'believe' in logic. I use it because it works where no other approach produces results which reliably accord with reality.

So then, I don't have the need for the certainty or the self-delusion of beliefs.  Instead, perhaps rather boringly, I have working assumptions based on evidence.  And these days we should all surely be asking not just for evidence-based medicine, but for evidence-based living.  In doing so, we might at last rid ourselves of the cloying inertia of belief.



A Christmas reflection

Just before Christmas, there was a poll in Russia to find the most popular Russian of all time. 50 million people voted. It was a close run thing. In the end, Alexander Nevsky, a 13th century warrior prince came first and second was reformist Prime Minister Pyotr Stolypin, who was assassinated in 1911. In a strong third position though, came Uncle Joe (Stalin). He had in fact been leading until just before the poll closed.

Now tell me if I'm wrong, but wasn't he some sort of dictator? The one who sent millions of people to their deaths in the work camps of the Gulag and because of whom millions more perished in political purges or during the forced collectivisation of farms during his rule from the 1920s to his death in 1953? The poll was inspired by a similar poll carried out in this country to find the greatest Brit. The result was a close call between such luminaries as Newton and Darwin, but ultimately the winner was Winston Churchill. Alright, he was a war leader, but he was leading the fight against a dictator. And that dictator is still apparently revered by rather strange groups of people who see an iron fist as the main requirement for a leader - providing, of course, that they can be in his gang, even posthumously.

Now I am not suggesting that the Russians who have just voted for him would actually have been in Stalin's gang if they had been alive during his reign of terror. Somehow, it seems that the passage of time has instead enabled them to down-play the horror of what happened in favour of a sentimental attachment to the presumed stability and greatness of the country during that period. In the same way, many people in Zimbabwe will be looking back at the stability and wealth that there was when the minority white population was in charge of what was then called Northern Rhodesia following UDI. That of course, just like the Russian example, is to confuse a wanting for stability and a comfortable life with the means of having it. If dictatorship were indeed the only means of achieving such ends, then it would be a sad day.

Such selective vision is however commonplace in us humans. In fact, I suspect that with the lack of interest that there is in politics and the lack of trust in politicians, a surprisingly large number of people would not be too bothered if they never had to vote again. They would accept the lack of liberty which that would imply as the necessary cost for getting rid of the annoyance of the current political order. If only we could agree on someone to replace them - perhaps we could borrow Barrack Obama for the duration.

I was struck over the Christmas period by the amazing and beautiful descriptions of God contained in the carols and oratorios sung. He (for 'he' it is) is great, loving, all-knowing and able to do for us everything we need. He is wonderful. Of course, his care for us hardly seems to tie in with the reality of our lives, but we nonetheless continue with our idolisation of God. It seems to me that we have moved on from appeasing the local dictators - the spirits of the trees and the rivers and instead we have created a supposedly benign mega-dictator. We have managed to define God in such a way that he is a paradigm of all that we could ever want - the perfect benign dictator - and having so defined him, it seems impossible to remove him from his position. It would destroy our dreams.

Dictatorship, however benign it may appear to be on the surface, is still though an aggregation of power in one persons' hands, or perhaps I should say in the hands of a group of people. Because, as we all know, a dictator cannot dictate without the aid of his gang of supporters. This is true in the playground where the bully needs to have mates in order to be really effective, just as much as for Stalin or Saddam Hussein who needed people who would accept the reward offered in exchange for being enforcers - even if it was just the reward of not being themselves in the firing line. Are the clerics of any religion any different? When we cease to acknowledge the rule of their particular God, we know that he will visit terrible vengeance upon us in the form of plague, floods, pestilence and earthquakes. We know this, because the religious folk tell us so. And they are more than happy with such an arrangement. They are, after all, in God's gang. You cross them at your peril.

The relationship between the gang members is inherently unstable, based as it is on competition to please the man with the ultimate power and so improve your position in the pecking order. And when the dictator dies, there is always a power struggle. But how much more difficult must it be to maintain order when the dictator has no earthly form. Where the adherents must decide on very limited information what the dictator would have wanted. After all, this is what we see with religions. And in the sectarianism which is rampant in all religions, we see the disorder that would be expected where there is no tangible presence to keep control, with followers of the different sects at war with each other. Often literally.

But in the more civilised parts of the world, I suspect that there is a growing realisation that we should not take all this too seriously. There are still the true believers who take it all seriously, but for the vast majority in this country and in Europe generally, I think that these days the idea of God can be put into the same category as homeopathy or reflexology. We dip into it in a rather embarrassed way when we have nowhere-else to go but, otherwise, we live our lives without taking much notice of the shouty people who want us to chastise ourselves for our sins or have numerous children. It may even be for once that a dictatorship will come to an end simply because no-one can be bothered to be afraid any longer - interestingly, it may be ended through apathy rather than conflict.



It's all in the mind

Scientists have reported an experiment they have carried out on a blind man. He was blind because he had had a stroke which had damaged the part of his brain which enabled him consciously to see things. His eyes and the optic nerves were unaffected, as was the part of the brain to which the optic nerve reported. They put him in a room with lots of things in it and asked him to walk across it. He succeeded in doing so without colliding with any of the obstacles. He was unaware at a conscious level of having seen anything, but his sub-conscious brain had seen' everything and guided him accordingly.

Functional magnetic resonance imaging has apparently come a long way and now it really is possible not only to localise where different functions of the brain take place, but also to see them take place in response to external stimuli. In this way a picture has built up which tells us that we are both very different to how we normally perceive ourselves and that Freud was not quite as far away from the truth as we nowadays tend to imagine. Because now it seems that in fact the vast majority of processing goes on at a sub-conscious level, with only occasional reporting back to the conscious level of the results. This is true of what we would see as intellectual tasks as well as everyday things. We see this in doing the cross-word, where we look at a clue and have no clue as to the answer. Give it ten minutes and, preferably, a complete distraction, and upon returning to the clue, the answer is blindingly obvious. Likewise, we go to sleep unable to see an answer to a problem only to wake up with a much clearer picture of how to deal with things. From the research carried out, it seems that it is both when we are awake and also when we are asleep that our subconscious is beavering away to produce solutions. It never shuts down.

We are not surprised when we walk down the street without consciously making an effort either to walk or to avoid collisions with other people. But of course, babies don't do that. They have to learn to walk, to take avoiding action. But they soon sub-contract that work to the sub-conscious so that they can get on with other things. And it seems that those other things include not only the motor tasks which we have to manage in order to stay upright, but also, at least in part, the higher, rational activities that we need to engage in order to determine the meaning of life, the universe and everything. After many years of study and of practice of the law, the mere presentation to me of a problem would normally automatically bring to the fore at least the outlines of its solution. Presumably from my subconscious. That in turn would suggest to my conscious brain how to investigate further.  Then, by combining my background knowledge together with the consciously acquired new data from e.g. the case-law I consulted, the most likely solution would gradually emerge into my conscious brain. Apparently that's how it happens.

So what exactly does the conscious me do? The latest research suggests that the sub-conscious is processing all the information we take in, but the conscious brain ('the mind') decides what information it actually needs for what it has determined is required for its purposes. It then extracts that information from the basement level. Current theory is that the conscious brain is there to manage things. It is there to keep records and plan; to keep to the fore a picture of who we are and what we want to achieve. Unlike other animals we have long term goals. And to have these it is reasonable to assume that it is efficient for us to be more than just dimly aware of ourselves as entities. In order to plan for the future, we have to see ourselves as part of a process in time - to imagine ourselves in our planned future. To interact socially and so co-operate as successfully as we do with others, we have to be able to recognise them as beings similar to ourselves and understand how they think. We have to stand in their shoes. We must be fully self-conscious.

And in all of this, is there a place for a mind separate from the brain? There seems to be no need for one according to the scientists. But for those who still think there is one, I wonder how they would explain Alzheimer's disease? The dualist's non-material mind is supposed to be the real me and allow 'me' to continue into eternity. With Alzheimer's, however, accompanying the progressive loss of the memories is the inevitable loss of personality, the loss of 'me'. It seems odd that a brain disease can mean that the non-physical mind parallels the physical brain's decline, so that there is essentially nothing left of the real me to go onto the next life - neither personality nor memories. You would think that my eternal spirit would at least have a back-up copy of me to use in case of emergency, both during my life and afterwards.

 

For more detailed information about fMRI etc. please see the web-site for 'In our Time', 13th November 2008

 

Swiss rolls

The Swiss have given the world many notable things - the Swiss Army knife, the cuckoo clock and, of course, the Swiss Roll. What they gave us on Sunday last (30 November 2008) was, however, quite extraordinary. Despite the disapproval of the USA and the UN drugs authority, they voted Yes' in a referendum in which they were asked to approve the continuation of a regime under which the State supplies heroin to long-term heroin users.

Throughout the 1980s and early 1990s Switzerland had one of the highest rates of heroin addiction in Europe. In cities such as Zurich, Basel and Bern it was common to find addicts injecting and dealers selling publicly in the streets and parks. Users often shared needles, leading to high HIV infection rates, and in the spread of Hepatitis. In an attempt to reduce the spread of such diseases, the Swiss health department began introducing needle exchanges, followed by clean injection rooms where addicts could take their illegally-bought heroin in a safe environment, supervised by a nurse.

For many, the next logical step was to start prescribing heroin to those addicts, many of them already ill, who really did not seem able to get off drugs. And so in 1998, following a referendum, the law in Switzerland was changed to allow a ten year experiment in the state supply of heroin. The prescription of heroin was allowed to junkies who had tried everything else, but had been unable to give up the drug. Its prescription was though part of an overall strategy, involving help from psychiatrists and social workers as well, in an attempt to help the addicts to normalise their lives.

Under the scheme, patients can take heroin several times each day but, to have the supply, they must go to a clinic where they inject themselves as a nurse watches. There is no chance therefore of the heroin being taken away for sale on a black market. Although the dose is not in practice limited by the state, the amount mostly chosen for injection by addicts themselves is just enough to satisfy their cravings but not enough to cause a big high. This means that after a relatively short period of time, they are fit to leave and get on with their day. Those who have jobs go back to work. For those who have families, it is possible to have something approaching a relatively normal life.

The permanent change in the law had already been approved by Parliament earlier this year, but the (mainly religious) right wing in Switzerland demanded a referendum on the basis that it was morally wrong to supply heroin to people who were never likely to become abstinent. In their view, it was only right to supply heroin where the 'treatment' had as its likely outcome that the addicts would give up their habit entirely. Otherwise, how could it be regarded as 'treatment'? So why did the Swiss decide last week by a majority of over two-thirds to adopt the more pragmatic view? Well, the previous ten years were an experiment and the results are now in:

Crimes committed by heroin addicts have dropped by 60 percent since the program began in 1994;
 
Patients reduce consumption of other narcotics once they start the heroin program and suffer less from psychiatric disorders;
 
The number of drug-related deaths has dropped from around 400 addicts per annum 15 years ago to about 150 per annum now.
 
Studies show that the programme costs about 50 Sfr per day per addict, which is a lot less than the cost to the state of policing, imprisonment and dealing with the poor health of those not on the programme.

And there is another, unforseen, result: the incidence of heroin use has dropped from 850 new users in the year 1990 to only 150 new users in the year 2002 and has continued at this lower level since. This contrasts with the situation regarding the number of users in the UK, Italy, and Australia, which has continued to rise. It seems that the supply of heroin by state-run clinics has changed the image of heroin use. From being the rebellious act of rock stars it is now seen as being an illness which needs therapy. Finally, for the Swiss, heroin seems to have become a 'loser drug', with its attractiveness fading for young people.

Switzerland is now looking at extending the idea to other drugs, notably cocaine. Other countries, such as Australia, Germany, Denmark and Holland are seriously looking into the adoption of the policy for their heroin addicts.

To give state help to people to continue to take heroin for the rest of their lives may seem shocking to those with absolutist moral views. For those of those of us who are not so hide-bound, however, it makes simple humanitarian sense to help people who have little real prospect of overcoming what is a dreadful disability and, at the same time, to relieve society of the consequences of the criminality which would otherwise inevitably accompany their sad lives. Maybe one day, even in this country, we shall benefit not only from Swiss Rolls, but Swiss pragmatism.



Class

Everyone 'knows' that we in Britain are more class-bound in our attitudes than anyone-else, except perhaps the Hindus in India. We are known to define ourselves in terms of a range of classes and sub-classes from upper class to working class. And we look down on or up to each other accordingly.

Following the takeover by William the Conqueror, it was he and his entourage who took the positions of power and became the new upper class, much no doubt to the chagrin of the previous Anglo-Saxon aristocracy, who would have regarded them as 'nouveaux' and 'arrivistes' and just, well, too français.

We didn't really have any other major upsets after that until the aftermath of the two world wars. Oliver Cromwell did have a go at changing things permanently, but the fact that he didn't really do class was probably the reason why his new order didn't last much after his death. At the top level, after all, the trappings of class are a reward for faithful service. If you don't reward your followers well, particularly after a civil war, then they'll transfer their allegiance to someone who will.

I do wonder, however, to what extent class is still important in society, rather than being simply an echo from earlier times. Advertisers, for example, faced with getting a good return on their budgets categorise us in terms of income, jobs type, educational attainment and many other measurable factors and target adverts accordingly. They do not take much notice of the traditional class divisions.

Now it is certainly true that there is still a nebulous idea of class which permeates society and much time and ink has been used in trying to categorise people by their titles, manners, accents and use of the word 'lavatory'. But do the class divisions have any generally agreed definition? Is class useful in describing people? Personally, I find it very difficult to use it in a way which tells me anything very useful about any individual. Rather, I find myself trying to shoehorn a person into my rather vague notions of a class category, when in reality no individual can be defined so simplistically.

Most of us have characteristics which cross traditional class divides to some extent. I dare say that even the toffs like bangers and mash from time to time. If we look at individuals, we see that each will belong to many different social groups: the banker who goes to Aston Villa matches; the lawyer who goes to evening classes at the local comp to improve his French; the newspaper editor who belongs to the local bowls club. In the detail of what we do, we are able to see each other in more than the monochromatic light of class.

It is perhaps an irony of our times that the stately homes are now largely owned by the National Trust (i.e us), or else by aristocratic owners reduced to making ends meet by letting the public parade around them and hiring them out for corporate events. Such is the relevance of our old class system.

Indeed probably the most visible 'class' nowadays (in the media, at least) is a new group of people - the Celebrity Class, which is a mixture of everyone who has somehow contrived to get in the public eye, from actors and billionaires to the latest winner of Big Brother or the X factor. It is a class of all classes and possibly both the most desired and most despised of all of them. And also the most irrelevant to the reality of almost all of our lives.

But whatever I may think about the relevance of class, it is still true that I am not likely to mix much with other groups of people who do not share one or more of my interests. Why would I? And my interests are quite likely to be influenced considerably by how I was brought up, my education and the type of work I do. In itself this is not a problem: we do what we want to do and mix with whom we want to mix. And if an aristocrat does not want to mix with me simply because of his perception that he is superior to me, then his blinkered vision is his problem.

John Prescott, as we have seen in his documentary, in being fixated on seeing things from a working class perspective, is similarly blinkered. I was brought up in working class circumstances, with the tin bath hanging on the outside of the kitchen, but do not now define myself by that. I had my opportunities, as did my parents, and we took them. As did John Prescott. By my own efforts, and with the support of my parents, I have moved on.

But this is not a way open to everyone. And it is here that a real class problem exists: amongst that underclass of people, who live in dreadful conditions and who do not have the choices which the rest of us have. They cannot take advantage of the chances that education gives if they are not encouraged to attend school, if they take drugs or are in prison. They will not maximise their chances of good health if they live in conditions where chips are the only vegetable. For us to talk about equality of opportunity for them is vacuous: even if excellent schools and health systems are there for them, the major influence in peoples' lives remains that of their parents or indeed parent. Statistically, the children of well-educated, well-off parents will usually progress just as well if they go to reasonably well-performing state schools as if they go to private schools. For the other extreme in society, no amount of external provision of opportunity will overcome the malign influence of a home where there is no thought of trying to improve their position; where it is perfectly normal for state benefits, rather than work, to put burgers on the table and to keep the TV turned on in the corner of the room.

Can we deal with this in any way? You would think that the Conservatives would say that it is up to each person to 'get on his bike' and sort himself out. It is therefore all the more surprising that the Conservative sponsored 'Centre for Social Justice', run by former conservative party leader Ian (Duncan) Smith is saying just the opposite. (See http://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk ). They say that more state-sponsored intervention is needed in such families to help them to cope with their circumstances and so lift them out of poverty and into a more productive life. As always, the devil is in the detail, both that of the policies and of the individuals lives. Combining the need for intervention to help such people out of those circumstances with the need to let them take responsibility for their own lives as much as possible is very difficult but, it seems, is possible granted the will, and money, to do it.

So then, it seems to me that we can live with most of our class system. After all, its influence on most of our lives is largely imaginary, but it helps us to promote the picture that foreigners have of us - as totally bound up in tradition. That, of course, is why they continue to come and spend money here as tourists. What we do not want them to see, however are the conditions of those at the bottom of the heap . And that is where the influence of class is real and, sadly, not imaginary.



Poppies

Last week I went to the funeral of a Coleshill man who had been killed by a roadside bomb in Afghanistan a fortnight before his regiment was due to return home. I decided that I would go and attend - out of solidarity.

I did not imagine I would be able to get into the Church: I did not even try, but stood instead with about 300 others outside the packed church. There was supposed to be a relay of the service to those outside, but the PA system did not work. Instead we stood talking in low voices beneath our umbrellas in the cold and rain. The people around me were of all ages and all types. It was half-term and so there were quite a lot of youngsters amongst the crowd of people. I ended up standing by and chatting to someone I know who runs discos for a living, but who was there, like me, not because he knew the soldier or his family, but simply because he felt that, as someone who lived in the town, he should be there.

The Church itself is set in extensive grounds at the back of the shops which form the High Street and which act as a sound barrier to the passing traffic. It was almost as if we were in the rural world of yesterday. Except that the day's events were very much of today. Finally, the coffin was taken from the Church down to the cemetery by his former comrades in arms. A sergeant amongst the group pall-bearers was clearly having great difficulty preventing himself from crying. It was a moving event.

Whilst always being against the war in Iraq, I felt that the war in Afghanistan was justified in international law and also on moral grounds. Al Qaeda had just carried out the attack on the Twin Towers in New York and the Taliban government had fully supported Al Qaeda in what it had done. The Taliban had imposed a repressive regime on its citizens which, morally speaking, as far as I could see was not much different to the infamous Cambodian regime of Pol Pot. And so I hoped, and for a while it appeared, that some semblance of a civilised life could be brought to the country. The terrible excesses of the Taliban's virulent extremism became history. Education for women was restored and people could go about their lives without being arrested by the thought police.

As time has gone on, however, things have not gone as well as we might have hoped. Why? Well, it seems to have been the usual combination of an unwillingness to put money and people into the aftermath of the war and the consequent return to power of local gangsters (the so-called "Warlords") in the now all too familiar power vacuum which followed the defeat of the Taliban. Yet again, the idea of winning the hearts and minds of the populace seems to have been relegated to a distant second, whilst the undermanned armed forces try just to bring security' to the various regions of the country. Why are they so undermanned? Mainly because of that other war - the one in Iraq. That and, it seems, a close-minded approach to doing things.

Somewhat ironically, I was wearing a poppy as I stood outside the church. Afghanistan is the world's leading producer of opium (82% of global opium production), cultivating 1,650 square kilometres of opium poppies and a potential 6,100 metric tons of opium in 2006. The policy at the moment is to try to eradicate poppy crops, thus removing a major source of income for the Taliban and Al Qaeda, but also leaving the farmers in remote villages unable to make a reasonable living and so antagonising the community in consequence.

An alternative to this has been suggested by the Senlis Council (http://www.senliscouncil.net). Put simply, it is that instead of destroying the poppies, their planting should be done in a controlled way with suitably high price paid to the farmers in order to allow the legal production of the number one pain-killer, morphine. Virtually the whole of the world's production of morphine goes to about 20% of its population - i.e the developed countries. The other 80% of the world largely goes without, despite the fact that they suffer more pain than we do, granted for instance the much later diagnosis of cancer, and therefore its untreatability, and the much higher incidence of Aids in, for instance, Africa. The detailed proposals are on their site and have been referred to in the press on a number of occasions.

The American administration, no doubt still smarting from the abolition of prohibition in the 30's, is against it. They list a number of reasons for this, most of which could be overcome granted the will to do so . Perhaps the two reasons given which stood out as being quite insane, however, are as follows:

1. "There is no demand for it". Quotas for the legal production of heroin poppies are set through an international body and are based on previous usage in each country. But the cost of morphine is high and so doctors in developing countries do not prescribe for their patients what they simply could not afford to buy. So there is no demand. Welcome to the world of Kafka!
 
2. "Pain relief should not be the priority - priority should be given to anti-Aids and anti-cancer drugs". As if preventing or curing illness on the one hand and pain relief on the other are somehow mutually inconsistent!

Sometimes I despair of the stupidity of those in charge. Maybe the new American administration will think differently.

 

The herd instinct

In prehistoric times when hunters and gatherers worked together to get food for the table, there can have been no real concept of money. What after all would you use it for? There was no Waitrose then; nor were there gas bills. The more skilled hunters may well have demanded the mammoth fillet instead of the scrag-end in recognition of their skills and there may have been bartering where the neighbour had a particularly desirable stone necklace or flint axe. But the idea of an object representing some sort of abstract value had not yet arrived. There was no system of tokens which could be exchanged for something-else later on.

When society became more complex, however, simple bartering was no longer sufficient. In order to allow trade to expand, money was undoubtedly necessary. It enabled you to value something at the point when the job was done or the item sold. You could then carry its value around with you and use it at a later time or in a different place to buy whatever it was you needed. Of course it was originally based on gold. And so the money itself was actually "worth" something - everybody recognised its scarcity and so valued it highly. They still do.

However, a system of currency does not actually require that coins have intrinsic value or be backed by gold. Which is as well, granted that Gordon sold the majority of ours back in 1999, leaving us with only 300 tonnes of gold, then worth just under £3 billion as against a total amount of currency circulating of about £750 billion.

But the coins and notes we use only have to be accepted by all of us to have the value stated on them for the system to work. And we all unthinkingly sign up to that idea by the acceptance of salaries etc. for the work we do, instead of being paid in legs of lamb or washing-up liquid. We can take our money to the shop and buy turnips or caviar as we choose or we can save it for a rainy day. With money we can all get what we want, when we want it, as long as we all believe in its value. Of course when we lose confidence in its future buying power, as in Zimbabwe, then its 'value' can diminish rapidly.

The problems really start, however, when you try to make money out of money. Businesses need money to trade. Big companies need enormous amounts of money to build skyscrapers, roads, ships and planes. Of course they borrow from the banks, but they also issue shares in order to raise the money. The shareholder buys a stake in the company and, in return, the company will pay him dividends, if it is successful. But the shares are themselves a saleable commodity. They can be traded on the stock market. This is where it can all go wrong because it is where the gambling instinct comes to the fore - buying and selling shares in a fluctuating market in order to make a profit on those transactions. No longer is it just a question of dividends in exchange for a capital investment, with the possibility of an eventual capital gain.

And so we have millions of people in suits being paid to guess how the value of shares will change, minute by minute, in response to, yes, the underlying value of the company and its trading prospects, but also, just as importantly, to that very strange thing called 'market sentiment' or what is really just herd instinct.

For the market is based only in part on reason. It seesaws between opposite extremes of value based on the wisdom of the crowd - gossip, received wisdom about what will happen in the next few days or weeks. Why? Because as humans that's what we do: we follow fashion, and stock traders are no different; they too follow the herd. We find it very difficult to follow our own path when all around us are acting differently. In connection with the first stock market crash in 1720 - the South Sea Bubble - Isaac Newton said that he could not calculate the madness of people. Mind you he was probably feeling sore through having lost £20,000 from that very crash. John Maynard Keynes commented, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

But, despite all the evidence, we seem to believe that we are not really gambling, but taking a reasoned view of our investment. In times of healthy economic growth, with stocks going up in consequence, it is easy to convince ourselves that the gains are the result of our special foresight. And when markets fall, we are like gamblers who are convinced that just another throw of the dice will reverse our fortunes.

It is high time that we recognised that there is no difference in essence between the racing tips in the Sports Argus and the stock-market tips in the FT or between the man in the cloth cap trying to work out the form of the runners and riders in the 3:30 at Uttoxeter and the stock-market traders in their red braces. I would send the lot of them off to Gamblers Anonymous.


Secrets, lies and mobile phones

The President of Formula One, Max Moseley was, as we all know, videoed engaging in the sort of conduct which is the life-blood of tabloid newspapers. His predilection for sado-masochism with prostitutes put him and Formula One on the front page of The News of the World' for all the wrong reasons. But the newspaper felt it had to appeal not to mere prurience, but to high morality in order to put him on the front page. And so it alleged that the role-play' was based on a Nazi/Holocaust theme and that, accordingly, it was in the public interest to run the story in all its detail.

Moseley sued, but not for defamation (where he would certainly have either lost or at least not been awarded any damages) but for invasion of privacy. He alleged that the Nazi allegations were untrue and that accordingly he was entitled to respect for his "private life", meaning that the paper had not been entitled to publish what it did. The judge found the Nazi allegations to be unfounded and so awarded substantial damages and costs to Moseley. In an interview with the BBC the other day, Moseley complained that the revelations had caused severe embarrassment to his wife and children. He said, in effect, that that was all the newspaper's fault - what he did in his private life was up to him. He was entitled to keep his secret life secret, even from his wife. Perhaps particularly from his wife. The general reaction on the web can be summed up in the words "what incredible arrogance!".

Miriam Margoyles, the film and stage actress, was the subject of Desert Island Discs a few weeks ago.  Her choice of records was interesting, as was the wonderful choice of a luxury to take onto the island - a flush toilet. During the programme, however, she told us that 40 years ago she had revealed to her Jewish mother that she was a lesbian. Her mother had had a stroke a few days later and died shortly afterwards. Miriam Margoyles blamed this on the shock of her revelation and said how much she had regretted saying anything about it. She believed that such things did not need to be talked about where it might upset the hearer to know. She therefore disagreed with those running Stonewall who demand that all homosexuals 'come out'. In their view, solidarity between homosexuals is vital in order to overcome the prejudice which certainly did exist 40 years ago and undoubtedly still exists, although to a lesser extent today. Whilst I can see the point of what they are saying, the gentler view expressed by Miriam Margoyles seems to me to be quite justified.

There are of course some arrogant people who pride themselves on saying precisely what they think at all times. Most of us though exercise our discretion over what we reveal to others, very often for good and, I would suggest, morally justifiable reasons. Although "Thou shalt not bear false witness" is one of the commandments, and liars are to be consigned to the flames of Hell, little white lies have always been regarded as justifiable. All babies are, of course, beautiful. Really. But what do you do if you discover that your best friend's husband is having an affair? Is it anything to do with you? Most agony aunts seem to advise that you might perhaps say something to the errant husband, but that you should not say anything to the wife.

So what is the difference if you are a journalist dealing with the peccadilloes of the rich and famous? The standard thinking is that these things need to be revealed if it is "in the public interest". The public is most certainly interested, fascinated even, when such things happen. But that does not mean that it is necessarily in the public's interest that they be revealed.

In this country, however, it seems that it is enough that the deception has occurred in order to justify the suggestion that that person is not fit to govern us or to take decisions where integrity is necessary. If he has deceived his wife, then will he not deceive us? Well, in the case of such deception by the man in the street, the answer is: probably not, actually. Such behaviour is usually reckoned to be in a different category to the rest of what we do. But the ruling classes and the rich and famous are not the man in the street. And whenever a window is opened on their lives we seem to see a tendency amongst them to think that they can get away with anything; that, just like Max Moseley, they are exempt from the requirements of the morality normally expected to be observed by mere mortals. But if they do not feel constrained by the ordinary decencies of life then, as in many a civilisation before, that general state of immorality can cause major problems to the country as a whole.

If they do not feel concern that a god is looking on and judging their actions, then it may be that the newspapers have to take on that role: investigating what they do and revealing all to a fascinated public. Although I hesitate to say so, perhaps the job of the newspapers is, after all, to bring the rich and famous down a peg or two.

 

Democracy and the short term

In 1774, the parliamentarian Edmund Burke said:

"Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays instead of serving you if he sacrifices it to your opinion."

Some 60 years later, in 1838, 'The People's Charter' was published by the Chartists, a movement for political and social reform in the United Kingdom. The charter stipulated the six main aims of the movement as:

* Suffrage for all men aged over 20
* Electoral districts with equal numbers of voters
* Voting by secret ballot
* An end to the need to own land in order to be an MP
* Pay for Members of Parliament
* Annual election of Parliament

At first glance, there appears to be no conflict between the statement made by Burke and the demands of the Chartists, the first 5 of which were finally accepted in 1918. But two of their demands make Burke's statement of principle difficult to achieve in practice: the requirement that MP's be paid a salary (so that non-toffs could stand for election) and having an annual election to Parliament. Why? Well in the last few weeks we have seen the reason for this inconsistency played out in the democratic system of America.

A large majority of Congressmen turned down the $700,000,000,000 (is that enough noughts?) bail-out package following the banking crisis. They were of course entitled to exercise their judgement and say "no" if that was what they believed. But the reports of why those in marginal seats actually said no are very instructive. It was reported that there had been a violent reaction against the bill from the grass roots. They had telephoned their congressmen in droves to tell them of their disapproval. The elections for the House of Representatives were to be held only a few weeks later and so the congressmen had to bow to the immediate will of the people rather than exercise their own judgement, or face the near certain loss of their seats and their salaries. The impending election meant that they could not take a long term view of the rights and wrongs of the bill. And so we see that the fact that people are now career politicians, relying on their salaries, makes their role as independent thinkers much more fragile. Even worse, were there actually to be elections every year, then their representative role would be even further diminished. They would become simple proxies for their constituents. And I am not convinced that this would produce sensible long-term results. We need people who can reflect in an informed way on the great issues of the day and then decide on our behalves accordingly.

But then we look at the morality of what happened. The grass roots were against the package on the basis that it would be grossly unfair and immoral to reward the fat cats who had got them into the mess in the first place - despite the fact that the ordinary Joe would suffer just as much, if not more, from the lack of action to prop up the banks (and so the fat cats). A clear case of an irrational mob reaction. But this was soon abandoned when, a day later, the stock market had its biggest fall ever. Main Street finally realised that this affected not only the super rich, but them as well via their pension funds, the availability of credit and so, ultimately, their own jobs. The telephone calls for rejection of the bill became outnumbered by those in favour of it.

No doubt some congressmen breathed a sigh of relief, realising that they could do as they had always wanted to and vote for the bill. But having frightened the executive and the party leaders with their initial rejection, there was then something else which came into play. The bill was passed on Friday with the benefit of an extra $100,000,000,000 in scrapings from the Pork Barrel - tax breaks for local groups in their constituencies, like the $7 million for the children's wooden arrow makers in Myrtle Point, Oregon - given to bribe those (presumably unprincipled) Congressmen whose votes could be bought. They were given something that they could wave under the noses of their potential electors, so bolstering their chances of keeping their jobs.

Thus we see that capitalism, condemned as being an activity based on selfishness and greed, is probably no worse in practice than our democratic system of governance, which is also ultimately based on selfishness, that of the voters and of some, at least, of their representatives. Mind you democracy is probably still the best system we have - in principle. We just have to get the practicalities sorted out, so that long term needs can stay on top. This time it was only achieved by the skin of our teeth.

 


Sharkanomics


I am still reeling from the fact that Damien Hirst has made £111 million from the recent auction sale at Sotheby's in London, mainly of the works which remained unsold at the various galleries through which he normally sold them, plus a few new works.

From what I have seen in the news reports, they seemed mostly to follow the same theme - an animal or fish preserved in formaldehyde or butterflies on a painted background. There was for instance "The Golden Calf", sold for £9.2m - a young bull in a tank of formaldehyde wearing a golden disc. Or you could have for £9.6m "the Kingdom", which is a preserved tiger shark in a tank. If your budget didn't stretch quite that far then for £541,000 you could have bought "Strawberries and cream", described as "butterflies, manufactured diamonds and household gloss on canvas". And all this at a time when the financial world went into melt-down, with Mr Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary announcing in the same week that the various Banks' toxic assets (the mortgage backed instruments) would be taken off their hands by the American taxpayers and realised gradually over the natural lifetimes of those loans, meaning that their present day value (or lack of it) would cease to be of immediate relevance.

Now it is not unusual for an artist to produce works which are similar to each other. The same haystack can be seen in very many different pictures by Monet, although each in different lighting conditions - that being the point of it all. And Chaim Sutine produced pictures of sides of meat, a part skinned rabbit and a plucked chicken. These are hung alongside works by Renoir, Cézanne, Picasso etc in the Orangerie in Paris and just one floor down from Monet's world famous 'Nymphéas'. But pickled animals? Just as the financial world seems in recent years to have been a house of cards, so I cannot help but think that these latest purchases will not prove to be quite the investment opportunity they may appear to be.

The banks depend on confidence to keep going. Once that disappears, then the system stops working. Assets which have a realisable value in the long term such as those based on house loans, some at least of which will be paid off normally, suddenly have no short term value, simply because no-one is interested in buying them. Without buyers, assets, however valuable they may seem, simply have no value.

The art world depends not on confidence, as such, but on that even more changeable thing, fashion. If an artist is not fashionable, then no matter how technically brilliant he is or how much his works may engage your emotions, big money will not be paid for them. Billionaires will not want to show off such works to their friends. And that is what it seems mainly to be about. After all, it is difficult to imagine people discussing the finer points of the Golden Calf's tank or the precise concentration of the formaldehyde used. Even the poor calf was just the product of nature. The golden disc is the only other thing and it is difficult to see long conversations ensuing from it. No, the point of it all is to own something which is both fashionable amongst your peers (i.e. can be called "cutting edge art") and has cost a lot.

But if Damien Hirst had only produced a single work, then it would be highly unlikely to fetch significant money. There has to be a body of work which can, over time, make the artist well-known and create a clientele all of whom have a vested interest in seeing the works they have bought go up in value. Having bought one work, they can be persuaded to buy more, but at increased prices and then to persuade their friends to do so as well. Why? Well, the more they are willing to pay for new works, the more the works they have already bought will appreciate in value. That is how it works. And so, rather like a pyramid selling scam, it goes on until...until the earlier sharks start to rot, (which they do despite the formaldehyde) or until someone finds a new Damien Hirst, when the bubble in the original Damien's work will start to deflate.

It has probably got to the point where Hirst no longer much cares about the money. He must after all be amongst the world's super rich. But his policy of producing lots of works which are similar to each other must in itself also eventually devalue the brand. Too many sharks in formaldehyde, whether wearing a golden crown or dressed in goggles and a snorkel tube will not be good for the resale market.

So it is to be hoped that the Banks have not invested in such works. If they have, then I can imagine a latter-day US Treasury Secretary announcing that they have set up a mechanism for taking the Bank's latest toxic assets off their hands and, this time, having to throw them back into the sea.

 

Colliding worlds

After 15 years of construction work the Large Hadron Collider at CERN has started to accelerate each of two contra-rotating beams of protons to just under the speed of light. The point of all this (and of the 10 billion euro cost) is to try to recreate the presumed conditions in the first trillionth of a second after the big bang'. This will be done by smashing the two beams of protons together. A direct hit will produce an unimaginably high temperature which will destroy the protons themselves. It will turn them back into pure energy. As the temperature then reduces there should be a re-creation of all the intermediate stages which preceded the coming into existence of those protons 13.7 billion years ago at the dawn of the universe.

Or so it is hoped. The point is that no-one really knows what will happen. It is a big experiment. There are a number of theories to explain the sub-atomic world, but none of them so far are actually borne out by experimental data. In order to explain the very existence of mass, the theories posit the existence of the so far never-detected Higgs boson (with its flip side, the Higgs field). Such particles should finally be seen in the aftermath of this 'small bang'. If not, the theories are dead in the water.

But none of the theories we have go on to explain the macro world - the world we can see, with its gravitational pull. We do not have the so-called grand unified theory of matter which is the holy grail of physics. Not even Einstein could crack the problem.

It has become even worse since his day because observations of deep space now tell us both that there is insufficient observable matter (i.e. mass) to hold the galaxies together and also that the galaxies are flying apart at too great a velocity to be explained by current gravitational theory. Rather than tweak the gravitational constant, some physicists have proposed the existence of 'dark mass' and its counterpart 'dark energy' to explain what is going on. What are they? Nobody knows, because they are undetectable by current methods. They are only at present a conjecture to deal with an anomaly. But it is hoped that the LHC will ultimately tell us this and everything else about matter as it replays before our very eyes what happened when particles started to condense out of what had been, until then, simply pure energy.

So then, we live in exciting times. But it seems that not all of us share that excitement. There is the obvious question of cost. What is the point of spending so much money to find out the answers to questions that most people do not have the ability to understand or think relevant? But then most people do not understand that without quantum theory, which no-one really understands, apart from a relatively few mathematicians on our planet, we would not have the semi-conductors (electron tunnelling) or hard disc drives (read-write heads using giant magnetoresistance) needed to run our computers. Neither would we for instance be able to make progress with increasing the output from solar cells. No, I am not thinking of that.

What I am thinking of is the contrast between, on the one hand, the open-minded wish of the scientists involved in the CERN experiment to test their theories, if necessary to destruction, in order to be able to explain how the world works and, on the other hand, that other global phenomenon of the last few weeks - the closed mind of Sarah Palin.

The candidate to be the vice-president, as well as being a self-declared pit bull with lipstick, is also a creationist. She is someone who would not therefore know the meaning of having an open mind, of looking for explanations of what goes on around us. After all, the good book tells us all we need to know.

It tells us for instance in Genesis chapter 1 vs 11 to 19 that plants were growing and producing seeds and that trees were bearing fruit on the third day. That of course was just before the fourth day, when the sun finally appeared in the sky "to give light upon the earth" and so, a day too late, enabled photosynthesis actually to take place. She and her friends would no doubt completely disagree with the matter of fact programme I saw on the television the other day relating to fossils: for creationists, the various prehistoric eras never existed. The fossils are just God's little joke.

Neither does she think that there is anything in the warnings of the scientific world when they say that there is about a 95% probability that man is causing global warming and that as a consequence we need to curtail our CO2 producing activities. Maybe that's because it's so cold in Alaska that global warming sounds attractive..

And so we have a potential leader of the free world who makes George Bush look almost intelligent and even liberal in his views - at least he has finally accepted the basic global-warming argument. So if I believed in a god, I would even now be on my knees praying for long life for John McCain. We'll just have to hope for his sake that God herself isn't a hockey mom. I wouldn't give much for McCain's chances if she is.

 

A whiter shade of pale

We were in Annecy, France and on what was a very warm night, we decided to have an early meal at a restaurant in the town. Because it was only 7 o'clock, the restaurant was almost deserted and so we were given a table right by a wide, open window looking out directly onto a canal. The canals going through the town were at one time used for commerce, as witness the steps down to the canal. These days, however, the only traffic on the canals consists of the ducks and some swans sailing by. The water, coming from Lake Annecy, is so clear that you can see the unblinking gaze of the swan as it lowers its head under the water looking for food.

Opposite the restaurant is one of the many buildings lining the canal. Blue-flowered wisteria grows up the front of the whole of its four storeys to the roof itself, twisting around the balconies and windows on its way. Tiny sparrows landed on the window ledge right beside us and looked meaningfully at our meals. I looked back at them sternly to discourage them from making kamikaze dives to take my steak away.

Afterwards, we walked around the park at the side of the lake in the just darkening evening. Tourists were taking photographs and the pedalos were coming back to their moorings for the evening. A boat which is effectively a very large floating restaurant, 'La Libelule' (the dragonfly'), on the other hand was just going out on a cruise of the lake with its compliment of diners. It was a perfect evening. Until the telephone call.

It was a call to confirm the arrangements for a visit to see some friends at our twin town, Chassieu, the following week. The bad news was that they have a swimming pool. Perhaps we would like to bring our bathing costumes? Now my legs have not seen any serious sunshine for many a long year and so are as white as any you are likely to see amongst the holiday-makers on the beach at Weston super Mare. I wondered aloud whether the world was ready for legs like mine, but received little sympathy.

We arrived back at the apartment and sat in the verandah with its sliding doors pushed wide open. Outside, the children from one of the other flats were playing a rather noisy version of hide and seek. Eventually, the local child-catcher came for them... No, I must have been dozing: it was the parents calling them to come back in. And so peace descended once again. Until late on, it remained warm enough for the crickets to carry on chirping, but then we started to see lightning flashing behind the mountains on the other side of the lake, although they were so far away that we could not hear the thunder. The lamp-post in the quiet road outside started blinking on and off in the sultry evening heat. We had some gentle music playing in the background and I had a glass of a very nice local white wine in my hand.

But my mind was still on the need for an all-over (almost) sun-tan. How to achieve it in just five days? I could simply sit out on the lawn in my swimming trunks soaking up the sun, but then the neighbours would see me. Perhaps I could disguise myself with a large bushy beard and glasses? No, the last man who did that has just ended up at the war crimes tribunal.

 

Perhaps in my case I should instead simply shave off my beard and lose the glasses - maybe then no-one would recognise me? Alternatively, for the next few days I could make the ultimate sacrifice and get up early to catch the morning sun as its bronzing rays shine into the relative privacy of our verandah. Or perhaps there is a tanning spray-booth in the town.

And so passed a night in which I was chased by barbers, hid amongst bushes and finally walked confidently out onto a beach glowing with a sort of orange colour to the admiring glances of all around. Such is vanity. But vanity is a hard and unrelenting task master and so, one way or another, the suntan starts now.

 

 A Point of View   Philosophy    Who am I?    Links     Photos of Annecy    Photos of Prague

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  eXTReMe Tracker